1. I have used Wed ¡­

1. I have used Wed Aug 22 and Wed Aug 29 to provide a broad, general introduction to the course and its themes. I have touched Ch 1 somewhat indirectly and have started on Ch 2, Sections 1-2-3, which is also our focus Wed Sep 5. Please read through Ch 1, though we will not take time to go through its sections in much detail.

On Wed 29 we also went through Exercises 1-2/2010 and 6-7-8 of Ch 1, along with various connections and side issues.

2. Exercises for Wed Sep 5: First: Suppose y is binomial (n, theta), that the action space is (alarm, no alarm), and that the loss function is as follows: L(theta, no alarm) is 5000 kr if theta > 0.15 and 0 if theta < 0.15, and L(theta, alarm) is 0 if theta > 0.15 and 1000 kr if theta < 0.15. Work out when the correct decision is "alarm", in terms of the posterior distribution, having started with a given prior p(theta). In particular, for n = 50 and with a uniform prior, for which values of y should one decide on "alarm"?

Next: Nils Exercises 2008: 1, 2, 3, 4(e), where results noted in 4(a)-(d) may be used, 6.

3. Note that I have placed the R script "com3a" on the course page (under the banner "R programmes and scripts"), associated with Nils Exercises 1/2010.