Next lecture 19th Oct. in room 819. Chapter 6.
Hi! We will go back to room 819 and continue there, the blackboard has been replaced! We will start Chapter 6.
What is the idea behind? Usually, the Bayes estimator (minimizer of the quadratic risk) to price a policy is not easy to obtain, because the class we minimize the risk in is too large. In Chapter 6 we restrict this class to just linear functions, so the Bayes estimator will be the solution to a set of linear equations (normal equations). We will do this in an even more general setting than the heterogeneity model, which allows the policies have different distributions (the Bühlmann Model and the Bühlmann-Straub Model).
Important: As I am abroad on Friday 26th we will not have lecture this day. We may try to catch up later if necessary, but we have quite good time to finish Chapter 6 and 11 (Chain Ladder Method).
Remember that the second assignment is available here and has deadline 8th of November. (I corrected a couple of typos in the text).