Exercises for Wed Mar 6

1. Our time window for the Exam Project is [t_0, t_1], with t_0 = Wed June 5 and t_1 = Mon June 17.

2. On Wed Feb 27 I went through the essentials of Ch 4, via Sections 4.1-4.2, with AIC vs BIC. I also went through the exam 2015 exercise 2, on stretching parametric models, plus more of the football modelling exercise, etc.

3. I'm in the process of uploading R com scripts for a couple of recently discussed exercises.

4. For Wed Mar 6:

(a) Find the Exam 2015 set, and attempt to do as many points as you can for Exercise 3, the Danish melanoma data. There are a few "FIC points" which we need to postpone a few weeks, but you can do most of the points.

(b) Go to the course webpage for STK 9190, Spring 2018, and the exam project's exercise 2, with (calendar year, number of skiing days at Bj?rnholt). Model this dataset with so far two models: (i) ordinarly linear regression, y_i = a + b x_i + \sigma \eps_i, with the \eps_i being i.i.d. standard normal; (ii) with an extra term for the possibly non-constant variance, y_i = a + b x_i + \sigma\exp(\gamma w_i) \eps_i, with w_i = x_i - \bar x. Compute AIC and BIC scores, and for each model estimate and analyse the probability p that there will be 50 or fewer skiing days at Bj?rnholt next winter.

/studier/emner/matnat/math/STK9190/v18/index.html