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1. Wed Feb 27 we discussed the basics of BIC, and also started the analysis of the prototype setup of Section 4.2. Wed Mar 6 we finish this analysis and also start Ch 5.

2. From Ch 4, only Section 4.2 is in the "active curriculum", with the other parts being cursory curriculum. For Ch 3, Sections 3.5 and 3.6 are not curriculum, and Section 3.4 is cursory curriculum.

3. I have uploaded com10b, more cross validation and skewed-normal regression for babies, and com13a, some BIC related analysis for blood groups in man.

4. Exercises for Wed Mar 6 are as follows. First, e.g. via com13a, compute exact posterior probabilities for the two models in question, and compare with results from the BIC approximation. Second, go through the material of Section 4.2 and try to reconstruct Figures 4.1 and 4.2. This takes implementation and plotting of a certain probability function and a certain risk function. Play a bit with different values of sample size n. Third, find the onset to menarche data set at the book's website, cf. Example 6.2. Fit logistic regression models of order 1 and 3, in terms of z = age - 13, as explained there. Use these to estimate the 0.05, 0.50, 0.95 quantile points of the onset distribution, along with confidence intervals. Also attempt one or two more models, e.g. the one having p(x) = H(b0 + b1 z)^kappa, and discuss your findings.