for the final weeks (more)

Mon Nov 24: we do Exam firetimers 2017, 3 and 4, and otherwise talk & discuss & ask & answer.?

We've had various "ProcMod" themes in the FocuStat project, From Processes to Models, and here's a talk by Celine Cunen:?

https://www.mn.uio.no/math/english/research/projects/focustat/talks/eysm2019_cc.pdf

Cromwell's Rule: "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken", he said, in 1650. So Lindley says: we should always have a little epsilon-part of the prior for the unforeseen -- otherwise the Bayesian will never ever detect it, if something's wrong. If the prior says "lots of swans are different, here's a four-parameter model, and all swans are white", then the Bayesian will NEVER detect that some swans are black.?