Bolt & Pr( world record on the 5000 meter )

For today's long extended footnote, check (a) the Bolt from Heaven story in Nils-Emil, and also Exam stk4150 from 2008, Exercise 5 (which Nils produced the night after Bolt's 9.72): 

https://www.mn.uio.no/math/english/research/projects/focustat/lecture-notes-and-exercises-for-various-courses-gi/exam_stk4150_2008.pdf

Today's calculation, having found & used the n = 109 5000 m races below 6:10.00, from 2005 until this weekend, is that Pr(a new world record this or the next season) = 0.057, or 5.7 percent. This is all inside stk4011 terrain, given the data and the two-parameter model for the c.d.f. of these top quality races.