As of January 2018
Pensum is:
Files with figures shown spring 2018 - Used in the lectures and will be updated.
Book Chapters and other written material:
- Euginia Kalnay: Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability, 2003. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 0-521-79179-0-ISBN 0-521-79629-6 (pbk,).
- Ch. 1 (except sections 1.5, 1.6, 1.8), - intro on NWP, DA and EPS
- Ch. 5 (up to and including sub-section 5.4.1; and section 5.5 up to and including sub-section 5.5.1). - Data Assimilation
- Ch. 6 (except text from p.218 (bottom: "So far we have used...") to p.220 (top); and except pp.229-231 until sub-section 6.4.3). - Predictability
- Anders Persson: User Guide to ECMWF Forecast Products, 2011. Download user guide HERE. (The entire guide is recommended reading, but the following parts are PENSUM): - Probabilistic predictions and EPS verification
- Ch. 2.3;
- Ch. 3; Ch. 5;
- Appendix B: B-1, B-2, B-3, and B-4.
- ECMWF: "Description of EPS Meteograms" in Link HERE.
- "Non-Linear Lab": Logistic Map, 2004. Link HERE.
- Note on Logistic Map; Trond Iversen; 2015. Link HERE.
- Note on Phase Space and Singular Vectors; Trond Iversen;2016.Link HERE
- Persson and Grazzini: Simplified on 3DVar and 4Dvar Data Assimilation: Link HERE.
- Meehl et al : Decadal Predictions, 2009. Link HERE.
- Hawkins and Sutton: Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions, 2009. Link HERE.
- Tim N. Palmer: EPS-Verification, Link HERE.
Additional material and links (also Pensum):
- Logistic Map: You can make some simple experiments. Link HERE.
- Or alternetively: HERE.
- The Lorenz model with a few parameter choices. Link HERE.
St?tteliteratur / Extra Reading:
* Predictability and probabilistic NWP:
ECMWF-Staff: EDA-perturbations in ECMWF's EPS, 2010. ECMWF. Read about the latest methods used to construct ensembles at ECMWF. (St?tteliteratur / Extra Reading). HERE.
R. Hagedorn ECMWF: Ensemble Verification (excerpt), Renate Hagedorn's slides on Ensemble Verification (St?tteliteratur / Extra Reading). pdf HERE.
ECMWF: Brier Precipitation, 2004. (St?tteliteratur / Extra Reading). pdf HERE.
ECMWF (D. Richardson): Relative Operating Characterisics (ROC) and Cost-Loss analysis (St?tteliteratur / Extra Reading), pdf HERE.
Novak et al: Uncertainty needs in operational forecasting, 2008. Instructive views on the need for uncertainty information in operational forecasting. (St?tteliteratur / Extra Reading). http://www.uio.no/studier/emner/matnat/geofag/GEF4220/v11/undervisningsmateriale%281%29/Forecaster_and_Uncert_WAF2008.pdf.
* Data Assimilation in NWP:
R. N. Bannister: A review of forecast error covariance statistics in atmospheric variational data assimilation. I: Characteristics and measurements of forecast error covariances., 2008. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Volume 134, Issue 637, pages 1951–1970, October 2008 Part B (Bare kursorisk pensum.). Supporting extra reading. (Download).
Bouttier og Courtier:: Data assimilation concepts and methods., March 1999. ECMWF. ECMWF meteorological training course lecture notes.. Supporting extra reading (pdf-fil).
Slides: Observations in Numerical Weather Prediction (Harald Schyberg) HERE
* Climate change:
S. Corti, F. Molteni and T.N. Palmer: Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes, 1999. 1999 Macmilan Magazines Ltd (Nature). Nature, Volume 398 (29.april 1999), sidene 799 - 802. pdf HERE.